HOT TOPIC INC [HOTT] was up a sizzling 17.4% to close at $13.04 after reporting third quarter results that met earnings expectations and reaffirming guidance. Earnings for the quarter ended October 28, 2006, were $7.07 million, or $0.16 per share, compared with earnings of $5.93 million, or $0.13 per share, for the same period last year. The consensus estimate was for earnings of $0.16 per share. Since earnings were up in contrast to most others in the Retail Apparel sector, and also in-line with expectations, the market’s gut reaction was favorable. However, net sales were up a truly tepid 2% year-over-year, despite having opened 45 Hot Topic stores and 15 Torrid stores over the course of the year. To make matters even more depressing, same-stores sales for the quarter were down 6.8% for the quarter. With an extremely high P/E ratio of 41.1, this one is definitely not a buying opportunity!
BEA SYSTEMS INC [BEAS] was beaten down 16.4% closing at $13.11 after announcing third quarter results that were in line with expectations at the top line (up 19%), but raised concerns in the area of higher margin license fees (up only 12%). Because of its ongoing investigation into stock option granting practices, there is now a 200 day gap between the last period covered by a quarterly report and today (in other words, it has the dubious distinction of belonging to our White Rabbits club). The stock was also downgraded by WR Hambrecht from “Buy” to “Hold.”
Convenience store operator, PANTRY INC [PTRY], slipped 11.7% closing at $47.03 after announcing its financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter, ended September 28, 2006. Total revenues for the quarter were $1.7 billion, representing a 22.5% increase over the same period last year and in line with the consensus estimate. Earnings of $26.7 million, or $1.16 per share, represent a 5.2% increase over the same period last year, and slightly better than the $1.15 per share consensus estimate. However, the company’s guidance for 2007 earnings between $2.80 and $3.00 per share were well below the consensus estimate of $3.32 per share.
DENDREON CORP [DNDN] dropped 11% closing at $4.76 after announcing that it had entered into a definitive agreement with some institutional investors to sell 9,890,110 shares of its common stock for gross proceeds of $45 million (about $4.55 per share). No opportunity.
WILLIAMS SONOMA INC [WSM] dropped 9.9% closing at $31.70 after announcing disappointing third quarter results. Net revenues increased only 3% to $852.8 million. Earnings of $0.25 per diluted share were down 19.4% from the previous year.
ZUMIEZ INC [ZUMZ] plummeted 9.6% closing at $28.49 after announcing strong but lower than expected third quarter numbers. The company reported third quarter revenues of $82.3 million, and increase of 43% over the same period last year. Earnings of $0.24 per diluted share were up 33.3% year-over-year but below the consensus estimate $0.27 per diluted share. The company’s guidance for the 2006 fiscal year remains in the range of $0.66 to $0.67 per diluted share, although this is still a bit below the consensus estimate of $0.69 per diluted share. Comparable same-store sales were a very strong 10.7% for the quarter. While the revenue growth of 43% certainly warrants a high P/E ratio, the current P/E ratio of 55.2 is a tad-bit high. Probably less risky than getting on the damn skateboard, but not much.
MENS WEARHOUSE INC [MW] dropped 7.7% closing at $37.00 after announcing third quarter results. Earnings for the quarter were $0.58 per share compared to $0.44 per share for the same period last year. The consensus estimate had been for earnings of $0.54 per share. Guidance for the fourth quarter earnings of $0.68 to $0.72 was below the consensus estimate of $0.79, although it included a special charge of $0.08 per share. Guidance for same-store sales has been pretty good and we see this as a good sign. With a fairly low P/E ratio of 16.7, and revenue growth of 9.5%, this could be an interesting buying opportunity, although there does not appear to be any really significant opportunity for revenue growth at this time – just a relatively attractive entry point for a well run business.
RAMBUS INC [RMBS] soars once again up 30.5% to close at $21.72 on speculation that an upcoming ruling by the FTC will not involve penalties related to at least two of the memory-chip technologies that the company licenses. Meanwhile the company continues to delay its quarterly filing with the SEC due to an ongoing investigation into its stock option grant practices. The gap is now 230 days for RAMBUS since we have had any visibility into its profitability (another White Rabbit). According to a recent 8-K filing, revenues for the third quarter were $45.9 million, up 28% year-over-year, but down 6% sequentially. Given lack of visibility and rampant speculation on muddy legal matters, we would exercise extreme caution here.
ZOLL MEDICAL CORP [ZOLL] rolled up 28.2% closing at $53.06 after announcing very strong results for the fourth fiscal quarter ended October 1, 2006. Net sales for the quarter were $72.3 million, up 26.5% from the same period last year, easily beating the consensus estimate of $64.75 million. Earnings for the fourth quarter were $0.56 per share, more than double the $0.23 per share from the same period last year, and again easily topping the consensus estimate of $0.37 per share. However, with a rather pricey P/E ratio of 64.8, we do not see an additional opportunity at this point.
DYNCORP INTERNATIONAL INC [DCP] up 10.1% closing at $11.47 on unusually large volume (3 times average daily volume) with no particular news. This looks suspicious. Accounts receivable is unusually high. Long-term debt of $629.3 million as of September 29, 2006, is also very high. The cash flow from operations for the first six months of 2006 was about $65.8 million, but the P/E ratio is extremely high, so this does not seem to be a classic private-equity deal candidate. Sounds like some buying taking place in anticipation of a big contract announcement.
READERS DIGEST ASSOCIATION INC [RDA] rose 7.7% to close at $16.70 with the announcement that it had entered into a definitive merger agreement under which it would be going private in a transaction valued at $2.4 billion including debt, or $17.00 per share. Long-term debt at the end of the third quarter was $776.3 million, but the cash flow from operations has turned sharply negative and with declining quarterly revenues, the long-term prospects for the company were rather bleak. We’re not sure what the strategy will be for creating value in this case, but the road ahead will not be easy.
L-1 IDENTITY SOLUTIONS INC [ID] climbed 7% to close at $16.26 after announcing yet another acquisition – this time the target is COMNETIX, a Canadian company, trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol [CXI]. The deal is estimated to be worth $12.5 million, or approximately $0.82 per share of COMNETIX to be paid in cash. L-1 expects COMNETIX to add $13 million in revenue next year and to be cash flow positive. Not too surprised to see ID trading higher.
Daily Sector Performance Chart
Despite the strength in the large and midcap stocks, the broader market was generally very mixed, despite the big drop in oil prices. The average member of the SI universe posted a gain of just 0.03% with 53% of the members posting positive returns for the day. The only capitalization bins posting positive gains for the day were the large and midcap bins.
Given the big drop in oil, there was little surprise in the outlier sectors. Alternative Energy was down 1.6%, Mining was down 3% and Oil & Gas Production was down 2.5%.
