Nitrogen Puzzle
Saturday, January 13th, 2007NITROMED INC [NTMD] jumped 19.7% closing at $2.92 (Pharma, 6x volume) with no apparent news events. Given the company’s continued relatively high dependence on BiDil and the fact that BiDil XR (Extended Release) is not yet approved, it would not appear that profitability is on the horizon. It is curious to note that the company’s efforts to apply its nitric oxide technology in developing new pharmaceuticals might lead to some synergy with a company like TERRA INDUSTRIES, which engages in the production of nitrogen products for the agricultural market (i.e. fertilizers), and that TERRA is also up rather mysteriously, but this seems like a real stretch.
TERRA INDUSTRIES INC [TRA] rose 12.1% closing at $13.39 (chemicals, 3x volume). While there was no specific news this week other than the debt restructuring efforts announced on Business Wire on Wednesday, there was some intense buying pressure between the opening bell and 1:12 pm, that is hard to explain. The recent insider selling does not seem like a good sign. As noted above, the NITROMED move is also mysterious.
APPLIED DIGITAL SOLUTIONS INC [ADSX] jumped up 12% closing at $2.14 (2.5x volume) with most of the move coming about mid-day. Seems to be fallout from the BusinessWeek.com article on RFID (radio frequency identification device) technology featuring two companies, DIGITAL ANGEL (55% owned by ADSX) and VERICHIP (100% owned by ADSX).
ALKERMES INC [ALKS] was up 8.5% closing at $15.37 (Pharma, 3x volume) probably on some buyout speculation, but be careful. We are still waiting on financial details regarding the collaboration with ELI LILLY AND CO. [LLY] regarding the manufacturing agreement for AIR® Inhaled Insulin.
NAPSTER INC [NAPS] jumped 7.9% closing at $4.12 (Software, 13x volume) after announcing that it will become the exclusive music subscription provider for Time Warner’s AOL Music in a deal estimated to be worth about $15 million. NAPSTER will replace AOL MUSIC NOW® and will involve the migration of approximately 350,000 paid subscribers. It appears the migration should be seamless for current subscribers.
OWENS ILLINOIS INC [OI] surged 7% closing at $21.55 (Manufacturing, 4x volume) after announcing that it had retained Goldman Sachs as a financial advisor in reviewing strategic options, including a possible sale, for its plastics packaging business. With revenue of about $770 million for the 12 months ended September 30th, it is believed the plastics packaging unit could bring in between $1.6 and $1.8 billion.
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC [AMD] was down 9.5% closing at $18.26 (5.3x volume) after announcing results for the fourth quarter ended December 31st. Excluding ATI-related sites, revenue is expected to increase just 3%. While fourth quarter income is expected to be positive, it is expected to be substantially lower than in the third quarter, due primarily to lower microprocessor selling prices that are more than offsetting increasing unit sales. The stock was downgraded by Citigroup, Prudential and Bear Stearns.
SCP POOL CORP [POOL] sank 10.4% closing at $36.35 (14x volume). This appears to be more collateral damage from declining residential construction. There is likely to be some more downside, especially given the apparent lag effect, so it appears prudent to wait for the P/E ratio to come down more. Relative to the rest of Construction, [POOL] looks awfully expensive. Avondale Partners downgraded the stock from “Market Outperform” to “Market Perform.”
RC2 CORP [RCRC] tumbled 11.7% closing at $39.31 (10x volume) after reporting lower than expected fourth quarter and year-end preliminary net sales. Increasing zinc costs are resulting in lower margins. In order to focus on its higher growth infant products and children’s toys categories, the company decided last month to discontinue its automotive collectibles business and expects to record a non-cash impairment charge in the range of $6 to $9 million in the fourth quarter. Robert W. Baird downgraded the stock from “Outperform” to “Neutral.” Given a rather low P/E ratio of 15.8 and double digit growth in the infant products and children’s toys categories, this looks reasonable attractive at this level.
VOLT INFORMATION SCIENCES INC [VOL] slid down 16.1% closing at $53.00 (10x volume) with no real news events. P/E ratio of 32.2 still seems high for 7.4% growth in sales reported in today’s 10-K for the year ended October 29, 2006.
The average member of the SigmaInverse Universe posted a gain of 0.73% on Friday, with a strong 64.1% of the members posting positive returns, 32.4% posting negative returns, and 3.5% unchanged. Unusual sector moves were seen in Mining (up 3.7%), Oil & Gas Production (up 2.6%) and Tobacco (down 0.9%).







