wall street nuggets

Archive for November, 2006

Time to Construct?

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

About two weeks ago, the construction sector was pretty close to the bottom of sector rankings for November. Today, for the first time, it actually moved ahead of the overall market performance for November. Don’t get me wrong. I think there is a huge amount of bad news for the sector that lies ahead. I will not be surprised to see Housing Starts go as low as 1.2 million units before we hit the bottom. However, the market typically will bounce before the economy recovers and it does seem as though we are entering a period where it would be reasonable to invest in the sector, even though it may take some patience to realize a significant gain, given the amount of bad news that lies ahead. Also, we should stress that the bad news is unlikely to seriously impact our choices given the underlying balance sheet strength that we see in the sector. We would strongly consider the following candidates for long positions in the Construction sector.

Company

Ticker

Close

P/E

STANDARD PACIFIC CORP SPF $25.66 4.61
PULTE HOMES INC PHM $33.74 5.94
MERITAGE CORP MTH $48.56 4.22
RYLAND GROUP INC RYL $52.75 5.72
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC HOV $35.51 5.48
BEAZER HOMES USA INC BZH $45.66 5.14
NVR INC NVR $595.00 6.64
KB HOME KBH $51.69 4.9
LENNAR CORP LEN $52.50 6.22
HORTON (D R) INC DHI $26.64 6.83
CENTEX CORP CTX $55.34 6.94
M I HOMES INC MHO $37.28 5.84
TOLL BROTHERS INC TOL $32.20 6.5
MDC HOLDINGS INC MDC $57.13 6.28
AVATAR HOLDINGS INC AVTR $71.36 11.37
WCI COMMUNITIES INC WCI $18.58 6.41
ORLEANS HOMEBUILDERS INC OHB $14.31 4.54
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC BLDR $16.60 7.03
CALIFORNIA COASTAL COMMUNITIES CALC $20.69 8.29
BUILDING MATERIALS HOLDING CORP BMHC $24.64 5.57

Daily Sector Performance Chart

The average gain in the SI universe on Thursday, November 30, 2006, was 0.34% with 52.7% of the 3,548 members posting positive returns for the day.  All market capitlization ranges were positive for the day, but the real strength was in the midcaps.

If Mining is up again tomorrow, we would definitely consider selling that sector.

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Vaccine Has Dynamite Impact on Dynavax

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORP [DVAX] shot up 32.3% to close at $9.79 after announcing highly statistically significant results in Phase 3 trials of its new hepatitis B virus vaccine, HEPLISAV™, comparing its efficacy with a vaccine, Engerix-B® from GLAXOSMITHKLINE. The results show that HEPLISAV provided 100% seroprotection after 3 doses, compared to 73.1% for those receiving Engerix-B (with the probability of a difference that large by pure chance being less than .01% given the trial population sizes). The differences were even more substantial for older subjects who are generally more difficult to immunize. The tests were completed at sites in Singapore, Korea and the Philippines and confirmed earlier Phase 2 clinical test results in Singapore for a younger population. DYNAVAX plans to pursue approval of a two-dose regimen and expects to initiate multi-center Phase 3 safety and efficacy trials in Europe, Canada and the United States before the end of the year. These trials should be completed in 2008. With its acquisition of Rhein Biotech in April of this year, the company claims to have sufficient manufacturing capabilities in Dusseldorf, Germany, to produce both clinical and commercial quantities of the vaccine. In addition, the acquisition included an existing hepatitis B vaccine product called SUPERVAX, which has been tested in more than 600 subjects with 99% seroprotection on a two-dose schedule. Insider buying of the stock has been pretty intense over the last 6 months (about 1.4 million shares), which is clearly encouraging. Currently the company is losing approximately $16 million per quarter from operations and it appears commercial results for both TOLAMBA™, a ragweed allergy drug, and HEPLISAV are probably at least 2-3 years off. In the latest 10-Q, the company claims not to have sufficient data to provide a timeline to registration for either drug. The agreement with ASTRAZENECA for the discovery and development of a treatment for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, has put $10 million in deferred revenue on the books, which we take as a positive, and in other respects the balance sheet is reasonably encouraging. On balance, we see DVAX as very speculative buy in the long-term, but expect some short-term pull-back, with too much reaction to the early trial results.

3COM CORP [COMS] tumbled 10.5% closing at $4.02 on the news that it would be purchasing HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES’s entire stake in their joint venture H-3C for $882 million. The joint venture is a leading IP networking vendor headquartered in Hong Kong, with R&D centers in China and India. HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES is a leader in next generation telecommunications network products globally, and believes the divestment will enable it to focus on its core business - the IP-based fixed and mobile convergence solutions market. It appears 3COM initiated the bid process in mid-November and that both companies are satisfied with the outcome, but, like some other analysts, we are skeptical that this was the right move for 3COM. The price appears reasonable, given that it appears some private equity groups were offering $1 to $1.5 billion for H-3C back in October. While HUAWEI may have balked at the initial offer, 3COM probably persuaded its partner to sell its share for a slightly richer offer. However, the difficulties of remotely managing H-3C should not be underestimated. The stock was downgraded by Bear Stearns from “Outperform” to “Peer Perform.”

NEW YORK TIMES CO [NYT] jumped 7.5% closing at $24.76 in the wake of significant buying of NYT shares by Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, former CEO of AIG. A number of other media properties were also up, although unrelated. THESTREET.COM INC [TSCM] was up 4.8% possibly on the announcement that Jim Cramer would be ending his radio show to focus on video programming.

ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INC [ATI] and TITANIUM METALS CORP [TIE] were up 6.8% and 7.7% closing at $88.36 and $30.42, respectively, thanks to comments by the CEO of ALCAN indicating the attractiveness of titanium firm acquisitions to address needs in the aerospace industry.

MSC SOFTWARE CORP [MSCS] was up 7.9% closing at $14.89 with considerable recent insider buying (c 140,000 shares) and/or speculation regarding

GASCO ENERGY INC [GSX] was up 13.5% closing at $2.61. While there is no recent news of note, the company would appear to be a somewhat attractive acquisition target at its current valuation. Despite the rather significant loss reported of $54 million for the first 9 months of 2006, most of this ($51 million is a non-cash impairment charge) and the company generated a positive cash flow from operations of $9.1 million for the first 9 months. The main concern might be the $65 million in 5.5% convertible notes due in 2011, but this appears manageable. We see considerable upside potential here.

SIGMA DESIGNS INC [SIGM] surged another 15.8% closing at $26.45, for a two day gain of about 20%. As expected the quarterly results were impressive, but the P/E ratio is far too extreme at this point.

WINN DIXIE STORES INC [WINNV] jumped 16.8% closing at $14.15, although it is not completely clear what is moving the stock since the company emerged from bankruptcy on November 21st. On Wednesday, the company announced that there were about 54.5 million common shares outstanding, implying a market capitalization of about $770 million, rather than the $2 billion found on thestreet.com or finance.yahoo.com.

DRESS BARN INC [DBRN] surged 19.3% closing at $24.46 after announcing record results for its fiscal first quarter ended October 28th. The company reported net sales of $358.4 million, up 12% from the same period last year. Comparable store sales increased 7% for the quarter, although the company also reported November comparable store sales increased only 4%. At the current P/E ratio of about 21.3, we do not see any opportunities, relative to the rest of the Retail Apparel sector.

Daily Sector Performance Chart

Another strong day thanks to some positive macroeconomic news. The average stock in the SI universe posted a gain of 1.11% with 77% of all 3,551 members posting positive returns for the day. The big outlier sectors were Alternative Energy (up 2.8%, thanks to higher oil prices), Mining (up 2.7%), and Oil & Gas Production (up 3.2%).

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Tardy Treo Punishes Palm

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

PALM INC [PALM] tumbled 7.7% closing at $14.19 as it updated its financial guidance for the second quarter after the markets closed on Monday. Palm currently expects to announce revenue in the range of $390 to $395 million for the second fiscal quarter ending December 1st. This is down about 11% from earlier guidance of $430 to $450 million. Palm attributed the shortfall to a delay in certification for the Treo 750 in the U.S., which is now expected to begin shipping “early” in the next fiscal quarter.  Since sales for the second quarter last year came in at $443.6 million, the new guidance is a significant drop from last year and we are inclined to think there is little upside opportunity at this point.  It appears that a great deal of pessimism is already baked into the P/E ratio.

MANNKIND CORP [MNKD], headquartered in Valencia, California, was down 7.4% closing at $15.93 after announcing that it intended to offer to sell 17,500,000 shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering as well as $100,000,000 of senior convertible notes due 2013 in a separate public offering. The company is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutic products for diseases such as diabetes and cancer. It’s lead product is the Technosphere Insulin System, which is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials to study its safety and efficacy in the treatment of diabetes. While the 50% reservation in both offerings for the chairman and CEO, Alfred E. Mann, is encouraging, it appears there is no real commitment on his part, and we would like more information regarding the expected usage of the proceeds before pulling the trigger on these offerings. Also, we are reluctant to take on the risks associated with convertibles.

DONALDSON CO INC [DCI] dropped 8.3% closing at $33.93 after announcing record first quarter sales and earnings. The company announced first quarter net income of $36 million or $0.47 per diluted share, compared with $0.37 per diluted share for the same period last year. The consensus estimate had been $0.43 per diluted share. Sales were $446.4 million, up 10.7% from the same period last year, which matched the consensus estimate. However, the company’s guidance of low double digit growth in sales next year seems consistent with a P/E ratio in the low 20’s which is where we find it, so it does not appear that there is a significant opportunity at this time.

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS CORP [DESC] surged for the second day in a row, up 14.4% to close at $4.36. Today’s surge, however, was most likely in response to a press release announcing that its subsidiary, Proton Energy Systems, had launched a new product called the StableFlow™ Hydrogen Control System, enabling electric power generating plants to produce electricity more efficiently from coal, oil or natural gas. It now appears yesterday’s surge could be explained by a news leak. While the new cooling system product from Proton Energy appears to be a big winner, the contribution from Northern Power Systems appears to be a drain on the combined entity, and we currently have very little visibility into the expected impact of the new product on revenue or profit. It is of course very unlikely that Q4 will be profitable, so the reaction to Q4 results is unlikely to be very dramatic. However, the 10-K next March should give some visibility into the bottom line impact of the new product and provide some insight as to whether the recent price change is an over or under-reaction.

DIVX INC [DIVX] was trading flat until about 2:15 pm when it started advancing steadily to close up 14% at $31.36 on no public news with very heavy volume (almost twice the normal daily volume). The video codec maker, recently announced a very strong third quarter, has a very healthy balance sheet and also has a very high P/E ratio of about 141 (trailing twelve months of earnings). Since growth projections for 2007 are not that aggressive (about 24%), it would probably be prudent to wait until there is a formal announcement.

RITA MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC [RITA] jumped 12.9% closing at $4.46 after announcing the signing of a definitive agreement to be acquired by ANGIODYNAMICS INC [ANGO] for approximately $220 million plus the assumption of $3.3 million in net debt. Each share of RITA will be exchanged for a combination of ANGO stock and cash equal to $4.70 per share if the ANGO price is between $18.18 and $27.29, with some risk/opportunity if the ANGO price is below/above the target range. While ANGIODYNAMICS reacted negatively in the morning trading hours, it recovered sharply in the afternoon and closed up 0.86% so there does not appear to be any significant opportunity at this time.

With a press release before the markets opened, SERVICEMASTER CO [SVM], provider of lawn and pest control services and a variety of home maintenance services, shot up 10.5% closing at $13.15 as it announced that it was retaining Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as its financial advisors as it explores strategic alternatives including the possible sale of the company.

Daily Sector Performance Chart

The average stock in the SI universe was up 0.27% on Tuesday, with about 56.5% of the 3,550 members posting positive returns for the day. The big outlier segments were: Alternative Energy (up 1.5%), Oil & Gas Production (up 1.9%) and Railroads (down 1.4%).

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Confidence Fades with Increasing Uncertainty

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006


It appears that increasing uncertainty regarding fourth quarter consumer spending and prospects for resolving sectarian violence in Iraq are leading to some erosion of confidence in the markets.  All 42 SI sectors posted significant losses for the day.  The losses were also consistent across all ranges of market capitalization, although the losses for the large caps were considerably less than the mid, small and micro caps.

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS CORP [DESC] up 7.3% closing at $3.81 on no specific news, but considerable speculation regarding a short squeeze and chart patterns being favorable. Volume was about 3 times the daily average. Given the low price, and likely volatility here, negative cash flow from operations, and unimpressive balance sheet, we definitely do not see an opportunity based on value at this point in time.

J CREW GROUP INC [JCG] dropped 7.1%, giving back a little on last week’s big gains, to close at $40.21 following a downgrade by CIBC World Markets from “Sector Outperform” to “Sector Perform.” With the drop, the price seems less inflated, and has more potential for long-term growth, but no big short-term opportunity.

SIGMA DESIGNS INC [SIGM] dropped 7.7% closing at $22.07, with lots of high expectations for tomorrow’s financial results. Unfortunately, given the extremely high P/E ratio, we do not see a big opportunity here.

POLYONE CORP [POL] slipped 8% to close at $7.84 following a downgrade by KeyBanc Capital Markets / McDonald from “Hold” to “Underweight.” With the upcoming restatements of financial results for 2003 through the present, we draw no conclusions, although based on earnings reports through the first half of the year, the stock would appear undervalued.

BENCHMARK ELECTRONICS INC [BHE] down 8.3% closing at $24.40 after reporting financial results for the quarter ended September 30th. Net income was $29.3 million or $0.45 per diluted share, compared to $0.32 per diluted share for the same period last year. Sales of $770 million for the quarter were up 37% over the same period last year. This appears to be a very strong buying opportunity for BHE, given the very low P/E, and very strong growth, with a very healthy balance sheet.

LUMINEX CORP [LMNX] lost some luster, dropping 11.9% to close at $12.12 after announcing financial results for the third quarter ended September 30th. The company reported net income of $111,000 or $0.00 per share, compared with a net loss of $0.02 per share for the same period last year. Revenue for the quarter was $12.5 million, a 16% increase over the same period last year, but below the consensus estimate of $13.7 million.

NYSE GROUP INC [NYX] was down 6.6% closing at $101.11 as it took a bit of a breather from its mad climb from $56.35 on August 23rd to its current price, just as it was announced that a U.S. regulator had cleared the way for its acquisition of the Euronext stock exchange. The biggest hurdle involves a group of European regulators who will are expected to decide within the next few weeks.

 

 Daily Sector Performance Chart

The average loss in the SI Universe was (-2.05%) across 3,547 stocks, with only 9.2% posting positive returns for the day.  The sectors taking the hardest hits were Airlines (down 3.8%), Network Technology (down 3.7%) and Brokers (down 3.6%).

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The Week in Review - November 25, 2006

Saturday, November 25th, 2006

It was a relatively quiet week in the markets with the earnings season behind us and a holiday shortened trading week.  Contrary to popular belief, though, one shouldn’t blame the tryptophan in the turkey for the trading torpor.  While purified tryptophan is known to raise levels of serotonin and melatonin in the brain, it is apparently a myth that it has an observable effect at the levels present in turkey.

The only significant moves took place on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the cumulative effect for the week concentrated in the Midcap stocks, which were up 1.25% for the week.

Returns by Market Cap for the Week 20061124.jpg

Slim Pickings

Friday, November 24th, 2006

MOTHERS WORK INC [MWRK] continued to fade, dropping another 7.4%, to close at $47.10. The two day loss amounts to about 18% and is apparently due to rather heavy insider selling by the founders, Dan and Rebecca Matthias, who have sold more than half of their holdings. The magnitude and suddenness of the selling activity is a cause for concern. On top of the recently announced bonuses and salaries for the two, the extent of the selling is hard to explain.

SYSTEMAX INC [SYX] surged 17.2% closing at $14.20 after reporting results for the company’s second quarter ended June 30th. With this report, the company is actually still one of the White Rabbits (tardy SEC filers) tracked by Wall Street Nuggets because it still hasn’t filed its third quarter results, although it is not quite as tardy as it was when we last published our White Rabbits list. Net sales for the second quarter were $547.2 million, up 8.1% from the same period last year. Net income for the quarter was $24.7 million or $0.67 per diluted share, and increase of 493% over the same period last year, which includes $0.12 per diluted share from the sale of a warehouse facility. Excluding special items, income would have been $0.56 per diluted share. It appears at this time that the delayed filings are due primarily to delays in engaging another independent registered public accounting firm and not to any internal investigations into stock option timing or other issues that are likely to require restatements. However, with the lack of transparency resulting from the delayed filings, we are reluctant to identify any opportunities.

IMMUNOGEN INC [IMGN] rose another 16.3% to close at $5.58 following the initiation of coverage by Cantor Fitzgerald with a “Buy” rating. Currently, there are four analysts covering the stock with three “Buy” ratings and one “Sector Perform” rating. The Cambridge, Massachusetts, based company researches and develops antibody-based anticancer therapeutics using its Tumor-Activated Prodrug (TAP) technology, with several candidates in Phase I and Phase II clinical tests. The company also licenses its technology to other biotech and pharmaceutical companies, including Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Sanofi-Aventis, Genentech and Amgen Inc. It appears IMGN may still have some upward momentum, and that it would be prudent to wait for a leveling off, before assessing the opportunity.

ENCYSIVE PHARMACEUTICALS INC [ENCY] was up 9% closing at $6.88 following comments by Phil Nadeau (with Cowen & Co.) expressing some optimism with regard to the approval of the company’s new drug candidate, Thelin, based on the company’s filing of a response to the FDA’s request for additional information. We remain convinced that this is a buy opportunity, up to a level of about $9 per share.

Daily Sector Performance Chart

We are adding a new sector called Security today. This sector reflects a wide range of medical technology, information technology, and other industries focused on providing goods and services to address homeland security. The abbreviated trading day following the holiday saw relatively light volume and with some concerns regarding a weakening dollar, slipped into negative territory for the day. The average stock in the SI Universe lost 0.02% with only 41.8% of the members posting a positive return for the day. The outlier sectors were Automobiles (down 0.7%) and Mining (up 1.1%).

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BRRRR…

Friday, November 24th, 2006

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

COLDWATER CREEK INC [CWTR] ran out of steam on Wednesday, slipping 8.2% to close at $28.40 after announcing third quarter results and same store sales. While comparable store sales increased a very respectable 9.9%, earnings of $0.17 per share matched the consensus estimate, and revenue growth of 37% continued to justify a rather pricy P/E ratio, the market did not react well to future guidance. The company’s guidance for the fourth quarter was $0.26 to $0.27 per share which fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.28 per share. A simple time series forecast of about $372 million for the fourth quarter, is considerably above the company’s guidance of $335 to $345 million, which leads us to believe this could actually be a good buying opportunity despite a P/E ratio of about 53. The big question is whether the fourth quarter seasonal effect this year will be as strong as it was last year (51%) or whether the sequential growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2004 (36%) is more typical. By averaging the two, we arrive at about $372 million.

BLOCKBUSTER INC [BBI] surged 16.6% closing at $5.26 probably due primarily to a reaction to the very large purchase of stock by Chairman and CEO (John Antiocho) on Tuesday (over $1 million!). Other possible factors might be either some short covering or speculation about the sale of some BLOCKBUSTER stores in Taiwan, although it appears very unlikely that either of these factors could have generated the impact or timing observed. Given (i) offline rentals are close to flat for the year, (ii) Wednesday’s insider purchase by the CEO tends to offset sales by insiders on November 7th, and (iii) the long-term view is pretty bleak with real video on demand on the horizon, we would be inclined to view Wednesday’s surge as unjustified, and likely to see some pull-back.

J CREW GROUP [JCG] jumped 14.6% closing at $40.52 after announcing very strong third quarter results. Revenues were up 23% at $275.6 million and comparable same store sales were up a blistering 19%. Adjusted net income for the third quarter was $17.2 million or $0.27 per diluted share, easily topping the consensus estimate of $0.21 per diluted share. In addition, the company reset its guidance to fiscal 2006 earnings to a range of $0.95 to $0.97 per share, compared to the consensus estimate of $0.89 per share.

PAYLESS SHOESOURCE INC [PSS] stepped up 14.1% closing at $32.29 after announcing a very strong third quarter. The company reported earnings of $0.43 per diluted share for the third quarter ended October 28th. With revenue growth of only 5.5% year-over-year and a relatively high P/E ratio of about 26 (trailing 12 months of earnings), we would be inclined to judge this as being over valued. However, the new deals announced with Nike and Disney clearly offer some opportunity for growth. Prudence would suggest waiting for some early evidence as to whether the new brands are generating results and then re-examining the opportunity.

DELL INC [DELL] jumped 9.3% closing at $27.13 in response to a preliminary delayed announcement of third quarter results that beat expectations. While the news beat expectations, the lack of transparency and increased competition from Apple, lead us remain skeptical in the long term.

 Daily Sector Performance

The day before the holiday, saw some continued strength in the large and mid-cap range of stocks, but not elsewhere.  The average stock in the SI universe posted a gain of 0.17%, with pretty much an even split between the winners and losers for the day (1701 positive returns and 1711 negative returns).  The outlier segments were Brokers (up 1.4%) and Network Technology (up 1.6%).

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Keep Your EYE on the BOL

Wednesday, November 22nd, 2006

Shades of Bausch & Lomb? ADVANCED MEDICAL OPTICS INC [EYE] retreated 8.9% closing at $35.75 as it recalled certain lots of its contact lens solution originating at a production facility in China and lowered its financial outlook. It seems to have learned some important lessons from the earlier experience of BAUSCH & LOMB [BOL] in getting in front of the story with full disclosure. However, it didn’t take Credit Suisse to react, downgrading the stock from “Outperform” to “Neutral.” With revised guidance on 2006 earnings in the range of $1.30 to $1.40 per share, implying a P/E ratio of about 26.5, and an estimated year-over-year revenue growth of about 8%, we still see more downside risk at this time.

MEDTRONIC INC [MDT] surged 9.4% closing at $53.55 by beating expectations in its quarterly results and being upgraded by JP Morgan from “Neutral” to “Overweight.”

Daily Sector Performance Chart

Markets were again generally on the positive side with the average gain for the day being 0.23%. The big outlier today was Mining which was up 2.2%.

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Let’s Make a Deal

Monday, November 20th, 2006

Apparently providing support for the old adage, “Eat or be eaten,” PHELPS DODGE CORP [PD] soared 26.8% closing at $120.47 on the news that it was being acquired by FREEPORT-MCMORAN & GOLD [FCX] in a deal worth about $25.9 billion. Under the terms of the deal, stockholders of PD will receive $88.00 in cash plus 0.67 common shares of FCX – in other words, a total consideration of $126.46, based on the closing price of FCX on November 17th. While both boards have approved the transaction, the transaction is subject to the approval of the shareholders of both companies and the usual regulatory approvals. Between the PD deal and the OREGON STEEL MILLS [OS] deal (see below), the Metals sector was on fire.

COTHERIX INC [CTRX] jumped 19.8% closing at $13.42 on the news that it was being acquired by a Swiss biotech company, ACTELION, in a deal valued at $420 million. Takeover targets abound in the Biotech sphere and we should develop a model for ranking them.

CYBERONICS INC [CYBX] surged 12% closing at $24.17 on the news that it had completed its internal investigations into stock option award timings. The company acknowledged that there were “incorrect measurement dates with respect to financial reporting of certain option grants between 1999 and 2003.” Although the exact amount of additional non-cash compensation to be booked is not known yet, it is estimated to be approximately $10 million, cumulatively. The company will be filing amended 10-Q’s and 10-K’s for the relevant time periods. The company also announced the replacement of its CEO and CFO. While the change in management is warranted, the magnitude of the price surge, the absence of profitability, the lack of growth in revenues, and lack of visibility into the operations, would indicate either total avoidance (conservative) or a selling opportunity, until there is at least more visibility.

AMERISTAR CASINOS INC [ASCA] rose 11.1% to close at $28.54 apparently on buyout speculation following the sudden death of its CEO, Craig Neilsen. Undoubtedly also contributing to the rise was an upgrade by KeyBanc Capital Markets / McDonald from “Hold” to “Buy.” No significant opportunities seem to exist at this time.

MENTOR CORP [MNT] and ALLERGAN INC [AGN] were busting out 10.9% and 7.8% to close at $52.78 and $121.32, respectively, in response to the FDA approval of silicone breast implants last Friday.

OREGON STEEL MILLS INC [OS] jumped 8.2% closing at $63.77 on the news that it was being acquired by Russian steelmaker, EVRAZ, for $2.3 billion in cash. No opportunity here, but watch the other steel stocks. RELIANCE STEEL & ALUMINUM [RS] was up 5.7% on takeover speculation and Mad Money’s hyping will probably drive it even higher. Other big movers in the sector include NORTHWEST PIPE CO [NWPX] up 5.6% closing at $33.99, OLYMPIC STEEL INC [ZEUS] up 5.1% closing at $27.37, and AK STEEL HOLDING CORP [AKS] up 3.5% closing at $15.16.

NOVELLUS SYSTEMS INC [NVLS] advanced 7.7% closing at $33.10 on very heavy volume (three times the average daily volume) with no obvious news. Despite the large gain, the fundamental data continues to look very strong, and the stock continues to look attractive, given roughly 30% top line growth and a relatively attractive P/E of about 25.

EQUITY OFFICE PROPERTIES TRUST [EOP] was up 7.7% closing at $48.14 after announcing that it had signed a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by the Blackstone Group, in the largest private equity deal to date, valued at approximately $36 billion including debt. Blackstone will acquire all of the outstanding EOP common stock for $48.50 per share in cash. Repercussions were felt throughout the REIT sector, with the sense that almost all REIT’s had become targets. There was some irony in the deal being announced on the same day that HCA (the previous record holder as the largest private equity deal) stopped trading.

Daily Sector Performance Chart

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average may have gotten off to a weak start for the week, the broader market turned in a modestly positive performance. The average stock in the SI Universe (3,551 members) posted a gain of 0.18%. There were 1,804 gainers versus 1,628 losers and 119 unchanged for the day. The big outlier sectors were Automobiles (down 0.8%), Metals (up 1.1%) and REIT’s (up 1.7%).

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White Rabbits in November

Monday, November 20th, 2006
Alice_images--White_Rabbit.jpg The number of late filers continues to grow. Recall that White Rabbits are defined as those for whom the last reported period ended more than 160 days ago. Companies with public floats less than $75 million still have 90 days to file 10-K’s, so the fact that the gap is greater than 160 may not mean that they are technically late yet - just that they are procrastinating and that we have less visibility into operations than we would like. Companies with public floats greater than $75 million are usually late on a 10-K after the gap exceeds 165 days and are late on a 10-Q after the gap exceeds 130 days.
Company Ticker Last reported
period end date
Gap
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC [MU] 06/01/2006 172
DYNACQ HEALTHCARE INC [DYII] 05/31/2006 173
CHASE CORP [CCF] 05/31/2006 173
SONIC CORP [SONC] 05/31/2006 173
JABIL CIRCUIT INC [JBL] 05/31/2006 173
ACTUANT CORP [ATU] 05/31/2006 173
DELTA & PINE LAND CO [DLP] 05/31/2006 173
KB HOME [KBH] 05/31/2006 173
COMMERCIAL METALS CO [CMC] 05/31/2006 173
SCHULMAN A INC [SHLM] 05/31/2006 173
LAIDLAW INTERNATIONAL [LI] 05/31/2006 173
SHAW GROUP INC [SGR] 05/31/2006 173
ROBBINS & MYERS INC [RBN] 05/31/2006 173
EAGLE BROADBAND INC [EAG ] 05/31/2006 173
PENFORD CORP [PENX] 05/31/2006 173
HORIZON HEALTH CORP [HORC] 05/31/2006 173
UNIFIRST CORP [UNF] 05/27/2006 177
FSI INTERNATIONAL INC [FSII] 05/27/2006 177
WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES [WGO] 05/27/2006 177
MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT INC [MSM] 05/27/2006 177
FAMILY DOLLAR STORES [FDO] 05/27/2006 177
SOLECTRON CORP [SLR] 05/26/2006 178
DELL INC [DELL] 05/05/2006 199
J2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS INC [JCOM] 05/03/2006 201
BEA SYSTEMS INC [BEAS] 04/30/2006 204
COPART INC [CPRT] 04/30/2006 204
SHARPER IMAGE CORP [SHRP] 04/30/2006 204
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FLOW INTERNATIONAL CORP [FLOW] 04/30/2006 204
NOVELL INC [NOVL] 04/30/2006 204
TAKE TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC [TTWO] 04/30/2006 204
NVIDIA CORP [NVDA] 04/30/2006 204
AUTODESK INC [ADSK] 04/30/2006 204
ECOLOGY & ENVIRONMENT INC [EEI] 04/29/2006 205
CHILDRENS PLACE RETAIL STORES INC [PLCE] 04/29/2006 205
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TRANSDIGM GROUP INC [TDG] 04/01/2006 233
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APPLE COMPUTER INC [AAPL] 04/01/2006 233
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WITNESS SYSTEMS INC [WITS] 03/31/2006 234
BROADCOM CORP [BRCM] 03/31/2006 234
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MUNICIPAL MORTGAGE & EQUITY L L C [MMA] 03/31/2006 234
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ATMEL CORP [ATML] 03/31/2006 234
BISYS GROUP INC [BSG] 03/31/2006 234
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FIRST AMERICAN CORP [FAF] 03/31/2006 234
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CHORDIANT SOFTWARE INC [CHRD] 03/31/2006 234
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UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC [UNH] 03/31/2006 234
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MICROTUNE INC [TUNE] 03/31/2006 234
MAXIM INTEGRATED PRODUCTS INC [MXIM] 03/25/2006 240
PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORP [PRGS] 02/28/2006 265
APOLLO GROUP INC [APOL] 02/28/2006 265
LAWSON SOFTWARE INC [LWSN] 02/28/2006 265
BLUE COAT SYSTEMS INC [BCSI] 01/31/2006 293
AGILE SOFTWARE CORP [AGIL] 01/31/2006 293
SEMTECH CORP [SMTC] 01/29/2006 295
CYBERONICS INC [CYBX] 01/27/2006 297
COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS INC [JCS] 12/31/2005 324
FLORIDA EAST COAST INDUSTRIES INC [FLA] 12/31/2005 324
NATIONAL PRESTO INDUSTRIES INC [NPK] 12/31/2005 324
EPLUS INC [PLUS] 12/31/2005 324
SITEL CORP [SWW] 12/31/2005 324
APPLIED MICRO CIRCUITS CORP [AMCC] 12/31/2005 324
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ULTICOM INC [ULCM] 10/31/2005 385
VERINT SYSTEMS INC [VRNT] 10/31/2005 385
COMVERSE TECHNOLOGY INC /NY/ [CMVT] 10/31/2005 385
CSK AUTO CORP [CAO] 10/30/2005 386
KRISPY KREME DOUGHNUTS INC [KKD] 10/30/2005 386
HANCOCK FABRICS INC [HKF] 10/29/2005 387
PROQUEST CO [PQE] 10/01/2005 415
POWER INTEGRATIONS INC [POWI] 09/30/2005 416
MILLS CORP [MLS] 09/30/2005 416
PHH CORP [PHH] 09/30/2005 416
MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS INC [MWA] 09/30/2005 416
TRC COMPANIES INC [TRR] 06/30/2005 508
BALLY TECHNOLOGIES INC [BYI] 06/30/2005 508
99 CENTS ONLY STORES [NDN] 03/31/2005 599
SIRVA INC [SIR] 12/31/2004 688
BEARINGPOINT INC [BE] 12/31/2004 688
FIRST BANCORP P R [FBP] 12/31/2004 688
R&G FINANCIAL CORP [RGF] 12/31/2004 688
BAUSCH & LOMB INC [BOL] 12/25/2004 694
NAVISTAR INTERNATIONAL CORP [NAV] 10/31/2004 749
AMERICAN ITALIAN PASTA CO [PLB] 10/01/2004 779
FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION [FNM] 12/31/2003 1055

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